{"id":8704,"date":"2011-07-10T17:57:34","date_gmt":"2011-07-10T13:57:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/?p=8704"},"modified":"2011-07-16T12:11:31","modified_gmt":"2011-07-16T08:11:31","slug":"odds-stacked-against-peaceful-democratic-change-in-yemen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/middle-east-politics-analysis\/odds-stacked-against-peaceful-democratic-change-in-yemen\/","title":{"rendered":"Odds Stacked Against Peaceful Change in Yemen"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>The Yemeni people are unrelenting in their demands for democracy. Millions continue\u00a0to stage rallies across their country in a display of will that is proving the most\u00a0robust out of all the Arab revolutions. The Yemenis face great challenges, however,\u00a0including the political vacillation of their country\u2019s opposition, and the US\u2019\u00a0military and strategic interests in Yemen.<\/p>\n

Al Jazeera described Abdul Hameed Abu Hatem as a mere \u2018protester\u2019. However, theman\u2019s demands show a purity and genuineness that is consistent with the chants of\u00a0millions of Yemenis from all over the country. \u201cWe are calling for freedom, justice,\u00a0order and a civil government. We demand that the public income is used by the public\u00a0and that people have equal job opportunities,\u201d said Abu Hatem, during a\u00a0pro-democracy rally in Sana\u2019a attended by an estimated 250,000 Yemenis.<\/p>\n

In order for such thoughtful demands to be met, a transparent political transition\u00a0needs to take place. Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen\u2019s president of 33 years is evidently\u00a0unable to lead the country. He is currently suffering from physical injuries, and it\u00a0seems that even if he were to recover, very few Yemenis currently trust in his\u00a0ability to spearhead meaningful reforms.<\/p>\n

Saleh\u2019s leadership is now propped up by some tribal connections, his own security\u00a0forces and the powerful Republican Guards commanded by his family members. Whole\u00a0army units have already defected. Most notable among them are the troops of GeneralAli Mohsen al-Ahmar, which provide security to the protesting youth from attacks by\u00a0regime forces. Many Yemenis have been killed and injured in such attacks.<\/p>\n

In Saleh\u2019s absence, the country\u2019s affairs were entrusted to the vice president,\u00a0Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi. However, all the signs point to the president\u2019s son, Ahmad, as\u00a0effectively being the one in command. The leader\u2019s nephews, Tariq and Ammar, run\u00a0President Saleh’s private guard and state security service respectively.<\/p>\n

While such figures represent a tiny segment of the country\u2019s population, their iron\u00a0fist methods and brutal crackdowns continue to stand between the Yemeni people and\u00a0their coveted democracy. \u00a0Another major obstacle is the indecisiveness of the country\u2019s opposition, which\u00a0co-existed with the ruling party in Yemen for years, and which seems incapable of\u00a0operating in any way other than government cooption.<\/p>\n

The Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) coalition had shifted positions repeatedly since the\u00a0early days of the Yemeni revolution. At times it has opted to act independently from\u00a0popular demands, agreeing to power-sharing arrangements with Saleh\u2019s party. This has\u00a0only served to prolong the status-quo rejected by most Yemenis.<\/p>\n

The JMP are now threatening to unilaterally prepare a transitional ruling council\u00a0without the General People\u2019s Congress and the acting president, according to Xinhua\u00a0news agency (July 1). This position may shift yet again, in light of the overlapping\u00a0interests of many parties from both inside and outside Yemen.<\/p>\n

The JMP\u2019s unilateral undertaking aimed at forming a transitional ruling council\u00a0would include \u201crepresentatives from the protesters, separatist Southern Movement and\u00a0Houthi-led Shiite rebels,\u201d according to a Yemeni official, speaking in Xinhua. Such\u00a0a political combination could be dangerous to the interests of influential outside\u00a0parties led by the United States.<\/p>\n

Yemen is one of the most important countries for the US\u2019 ongoing wars. Its strategic\u00a0location in the Arabian Peninsula, geographic immediacy to major waterways, and\u00a0close proximity to Somalia (which has been under US military radar for years) makes\u00a0it impossible to ignore for US military planners. Even during the time of peaceful\u00a0protests throughout Yemen, the US carried out repeated strikes at suspected al-Qaida\u00a0positions in the country. This reality is what had undermined the authority of Saleh\u00a0in the eyes of his people in the first place. Furthermore, Saleh used the\u00a0geostrategic weight of his country to gain US-western political and military\u00a0backing.<\/p>\n

A recent Brown University Study of the human and financial costs of US wars cited\u00a0Yemen as fourth on the US lists of wars, following Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan,\u00a0as reported by AFP on July 1. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike\u00a0Mullen, however, upgraded Yemen\u2019s position into a country that is \u201crapidly becoming\u00a0al-Qaida\u2019s center of gravity,\u201d according to a National Defense Magazine online\u00a0report on June 30. Mullen was speaking at a press conference announcing this year\u2019s\u00a0so-called Failed States Index. Considering the corruption and oppression at home,\u00a0and the determined foreign intervention, Yemen was ranked the 13th least stable\u00a0country.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile (al-Qaida) leadership still resides on the border between Afghanistan and\u00a0Pakistan \u2026 the federate group that is in Yemen is an incredibly dangerous group that\u00a0has taken full advantage of the chaos,\u201d he said. By \u2018chaos\u2019, he must\u2019ve meant the\u00a0pro-democracy revolution, and the government\u2019s remorseless crackdown on protesters.\u00a0This chaos has also forced many tribes to provide their own security, as they clash\u00a0with government forces and random militants. It is difficult to estimate the nature\u00a0of al-Qaida\u2019s power in Yemen, especially as the lines between al-Qaida militants,\u00a0al-Qaida-inspired militants, and any militant at all (operating outside the central\u00a0government\u2019s command) is becoming so blurred.<\/p>\n

Mullen suggested the maintenance of \u201cmilitary-to-military relations with such\u00a0countries (as) key to creating stability,\u201d according to the National Defense\u00a0Magazine. However, the Yemeni military is divided, and the president\u2019s security\u00a0forces are still committed to fighting anti-US militants. They are also resolutely\u00a0on the opposite side of the pro-democracy revolution. It is no wonder that the US is\u00a0still backing the old order in Yemen.<\/p>\n

The already impoverished country is now facing a possible economic meltdown – with\u00a0continuous electricity disruptions for up to 20 hours a day in the capital,\u00a0according to AP, (as cited in the Washington Post online on June 27. \u00a0The Yemeni people, however, continue to rally for freedom, democracy and civil\u00a0rights. They wait for each Friday to descend upon city centers by the hundreds of\u00a0thousands, conveying an extraordinarily clear message aimed at peace, stability and\u00a0basic human rights.<\/p>\n

\u201cHand in hand to achieve our goal,\u201d chanted the very large crowd in Sana\u2019a, all in\u00a0one voice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RAMZY BAROUD: A brutal crackdown, a divided opposition and U.S regional strategic interests are the principal obstacles to democratic change in Yemen. A tough call then. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":8705,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[154,83,60,180],"tags":[24,169,3473,2491,2453,18321,359,1808,700,2627,18302,3469,18313,4641],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8704"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/33"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8704"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8704\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}