{"id":21621,"date":"2012-08-17T11:05:17","date_gmt":"2012-08-17T07:05:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/?p=21621"},"modified":"2012-08-17T11:05:25","modified_gmt":"2012-08-17T07:05:25","slug":"mali-islamist-threat-that-could-engulf-morocco","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mideastposts.com\/middle-east-politics-analysis\/mali-islamist-threat-that-could-engulf-morocco\/","title":{"rendered":"Mali Islamist Threat That Could Engulf Morocco"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Hardline Islamists who occupied Mali’s vast north in the chaos following a coup in Bamako in March have tightened control over the area, imposing a strict form of Islamic law.<\/p>\n

Among those now in power in the north are the Islamist group Ansar Dine (Defenders of Faith) and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The situation is alarming for Morocco and the region. \u00a0Last week Libya’s interim premier Abdel Rahim al-Kib visited Morocco on Tuesday for a two-day visit. According to a government official in Rabat, the meetings focused on the crisis in Mali, the Maghreb and economic cooperation.<\/p>\n

“The situation in the Maghreb, in Mali, in the Sahel, as well as in the Moroccan (Western) Sahara” was discussed during the visit, in which the Libyan prime minister met his Moroccan counterpart Abdelilah Benkirane, a foreign ministry official said.<\/p>\n

Kib was accompanied by nine ministers, including the economics and justice ministers, who held meetings with the relevant members of Morocco’s Islamist-led coalition government. “This visit will focus on political dialogue and the strengthening of economic cooperation” between the two countries, the official said before the meetings.<\/p>\n

The Moroccan community in Libya, estimated at more than 100,000 people before the revolution that toppled Muammar Gaddafi last year, was also under discussion. Ties between Rabat and Tripoli have improved since Gaddafi’s ousting and killing last October.<\/p>\n

Both countries belong to the dormant Arab Maghreb Union, the five-nation organisation founded in 1989 whose members also include Algeria, Mauritania, and Tunisia. The deteriorating security situation in Mali appears to have spurred the five nations into action, with their interior ministers due to meet in Morocco later this year, after Maghreb foreign ministers met in Algiers last month.<\/p>\n

Diplomatic Manoeuvres\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

France remains firm:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is not for France to take the military initiative in Mali,\u201d [Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian] told journalists during a visit to Lorient in northwest France.\u00a0France, he said, \u201cwants it to be the African forces, in particular those of ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States) and possibly the African Union, that take the initiative,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He said an African military intervention in northern Mali was inevitable.\u00a0\u201cFrance will support it and, I hope, the European Union also.\u201d<\/p>\n

Morocco:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Morocco supports a political solution to the crisis in Mali but the regional community will have to consider \u201cother options\u201d if diplomacy fails, the foreign minister said in a newspaper interview. The kingdom is encouraging its allies in the UN Security Council to find a political solution to the crisis in northern Mali.<\/p>\n

Morocco supports a political solution to the crisis in Mali but the regional community will have to consider “other options” if diplomacy fails, the Moroccan foreign minister,\u00a0Youssef El Amrani,\u00a0said in a newspaper interview.<\/p>\n

The kingdom is encouraging its allies in the UN Security Council to find a political solution to the crisis in northern Mali, Youssef El Amrani told Le Matin.\u00a0<\/em>But implementing any such solution will face “several difficulties,” he said.<\/p>\n

Mauritania:<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz on Monday ruled out sending troops to Mali, where the embattled government has lost control of the north to Al-Qaeda-linked militias.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere will be no Mauritanian military intervention in Mali,\u201d he said overnight at a local forum in the northern town of Atar marking the third anniversary of his rise to power.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe problem there is very complex and we don\u2019t have the solution,\u201d he said, adding however that his country, which borders Mali, would take part in the international community\u2019s efforts to restore peace.<\/p>\n

\u00a0“The strategic, humanitarian and political nightmare of a ‘Somalisation’ of Mali’ \u00a0haunts the Maghreb and West Africa as much as Europe.<\/em>” – Youssef El Amrani<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Moroccan minister said there was “an urgent need to act, to prevent the Sahel-Saharan region from becoming a safe haven for terrorists and a refuge for criminal networks.\u00a0The exhaustion of all diplomatic means will force ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States) and the Security Council to consider other options”.<\/p>\n

French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said on Saturday that France would back an African military intervention in northern Mali, a strategy that he described as “desirable and inevitable.”\u00a0ECOWAS wants to send a 3,000-strong military force to Mali, but is waiting for United Nations approval and a formal request from Bamako.<\/p>\n

Understanding the Standoff in Mali<\/strong><\/p>\n

This analysis is by Giorgio Cafiero, M.A. Research Assistant with <\/em><\/strong>Foreign Policy in Focus <\/em><\/strong><\/a>at the Institute for Policy Studies and is reprinted with permission.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The standoff between Mali\u2019s government and the armed Islamists who control two-thirds of the country is unlikely to resolve peacefully, and the prospects for a new war in the Sahel appear increasingly probable.<\/p>\n

In January, a disciplined Tuareg separatist group, the Movement for the National Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), initiated a rebellion that eventually forced Mali\u2019s corrupt and weak military to withdraw from the northern part of the country in April. Militant Islamist groups \u2013 Ansar Dine (Defenders of Faith) and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) \u2013 subsequently took over the territory and demonstrated a fierce determination to impose a Taliban-style government on the entire country. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which includes Mali and 14 other Western African states, and France have expressed a commitment to preserving Mali\u2019s territorial integrity and disarming the militant Islamists by any means possible, including military intervention if peaceful measures fail.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, if the humanitarian issues that fueled this conflict remain unaddressed, a military solution is unlikely to resolve the tensions that led to the Malian state\u2019s collapse. However, Ansar Dine and AQIM\u2019s extremist nature suggests that a military solution may be inevitable if the government in Bamako seeks to reestablish the country\u2019s territorial integrity and restore its prized reputation as a rare African democratic success story.<\/p>\n

The Rise of Azawad\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tuaregs are a nomadic Berber tribe, numbering 1.5 to 3 million, who inhabit territories within Mali, Niger, Algeria, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, and Libya. They practice a moderate form of Islam and have managed trade routes \u2014 primarily in gold, slaves, salt, and ivory \u2014 throughout the Sahara for over a millennium. Despite centuries of old divisions and inner power struggles, the Tuaregs share the same grievances and goals.<\/p>\n

When French colonial rule in Africa ended, the Tuaregs were scattered across numerous countries. Similar to the Middle East\u2019s Kurdish population, the Tuaregs felt marginalized in the newly independent states. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, severe droughts created new humanitarian and environmental catastrophes for the Tuaregs. Such experiences fueled nationalist ambitions and dreams of an independent Tuareg state, which to date has never existed. Each uprising was suppressed. Peace settlements, typically brokered by Algeria, promised development projects for the Tuaregs. However, these promises never materialized.<\/p>\n

Throughout 2011, dry spells and low river levels created a severe drought across the Sahel. Consequently, 3 million Malians (including 600,000 children younger than five) fell victim to food insecurity. Worldwide, Mali\u2019s maternal and infant mortality rates rank tenth and third, respectively. This extremely impoverished African country\u2019s GDP per capita ($1,100 USD), life expectancy at birth (53 years), and electricity consumption (455.7 million kWh) rank 206, 209, and 165, respectively. Rural development in the Sahel would require an annual investment of 1.5 billion Euros for the next decade, according to a World Bank consultant. These figures define the context in which the Tuaregs initiated an armed uprising in January 2012.<\/p>\n

The NATO intervention in Libya directly influenced the Tuaregs\u2019 capacity to overpower the Malian military. Once violence erupted in Libya during 2011, Gaddafi hired tens of thousands of foreign mercenaries \u2014 primarily from Mali, Niger, Algeria, and Chad \u2014 to battle Libya\u2019s opposition. As longtime allies of Gaddafi, many Tuareg rebels entered Libya to fight alongside his regime. As Gaddafi\u2019s regime collapsed and chaos ensued, the Tuareg fighters returned to northern Mali with large stockpiles of Gaddafi\u2019s weapons and initiated their rebellion against Bamako on January 17, 2012. Mali\u2019s weak and ill-equipped military lacked the strength to quell the uprising.<\/p>\n

In response to the civilian government\u2019s inability to suppress the uprising, Captain Amadou Sanogo led a military coup d\u2019\u00e9tat on March 22, overthrowing President Amadou Toumani Tour\u00e9 and ending Mali\u2019s two decades of democratic rule. Sanogo\u2019s junta, named the \u201cNational Committee for the Revival of Democracy and the Restoration of the State,\u201d called on northern Malians to resist the Tuareg separatists. Despite the military leader\u2019s intentions, Sanogo\u2019s coup only strengthened the Tuaregs\u2019 determination to achieve independence. Less than two weeks later, the MNLA seized control of northern Mali, forcing Sanogo\u2019s forces to flee. On April 6, a rebel spokesman told the France 24 TV channel, \u201cWe solemnly proclaim the independence of Azawad as of today.\u201d The separatist group\u2019s first press statement outlined its objective of \u201cfree[ing] the people of Azawad from the illegal occupation of its territory by Mali.\u201d<\/p>\n

Azawad refers to the northern portion of Mali \u2014 including Kidal, Timbuktu, and Gao \u2014 that the MNLA seized control of after the coup in Bamako. Although previous Tuareg separatist demands have included the incorporation of southern Algeria, western Niger, and western Libya as well, the MNLA declared that their self-proclaimed independent state, Azawad, would respect the borders of all neighboring states. The MNLA\u2019s self-proclaimed independence from Bamako was condemned by the African Union and several Western governments, which asserted that they would never question Mali\u2019s territorial integrity. No state within the international community recognized the legitimacy of Azawad\u2019s independence.<\/p>\n

However, international condemnation of Sanogo\u2019s coup led to an ECOWAS-brokered deal, meant to return Mali to civilian rule. On April 12, 2012, Mali\u2019s parliamentary speaker, Dioncounda Traor\u00e9, was sworn in as interim president. A 70-year old mathematician educated in France, the Soviet Union, and Algeria, Traor\u00e9 lacked legitimacy. Thousands of Sanogo\u2019s supporters stormed Traor\u00e9\u2019s office on May 21, chanting \u201cdown with ECOWAS, Down with Diouncounda\u201d and carrying an empty coffin with the interim president\u2019s name written on it. After being beaten by the crowd, Traor\u00e9 was forced to seek medical treatment in France. Two months later, Traor\u00e9 returned to form a unity government, although much confusion remains as to who leads Mali\u2019s government.<\/p>\n

Islamist Hijacking<\/strong><\/p>\n

As chaos ensued, Ansar Dine and AQIM entered northern Mali, with more guns and money than the MNLA, and seized control of the territory that the MNLA previously claimed for their Tuareg state. Ansar Dine immediately stated its opposition to independence. \u201cOur war is a holy war. It\u2019s a legal war in the name of Islam. We are against rebellions.\u201d The organization\u2019s military chief Omar Hamaha continued, \u201cWe are against independence. We are against revolutions not in the name of Islam.\u201d<\/p>\n

Currently, according to the BBC, \u201cTimbuktu is under Sharia law. Gunmen patrol the streets, arresting men for smoking, forcing women to veil their faces.\u201d David Blair of the Telegraph reported, \u201cAl Qaeda\u2019s allies have imposed the rigours of Sharia, banning alcohol and music, blocking the local television signal and preventing radio stations from broadcasting anything but official announcements and Koranic verse.\u201d Amnesty International labeled the human rights crisis as the worst situation in Mali since independence in 1960. The violence in northern Mali has displaced 365,000 people, 15,000 of whom fled to neighboring Mauritania in the final two weeks of June, according to the United Nations High commissioners for Refugees (UNHCR). Smaller numbers of refugees have fled to Algeria, Burkina Faso, and Niger.<\/p>\n

A dearth of funding threatens to exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crises within the refugee camps. A UN report has stated:<\/p>\n

Operations to support Malian refugees are threatened by a critical low level of funding. For UNHCR, only US$34.9 million has been received against an appeal for US$153 million, that is just 22.7% of the funding needed. Our partners World Food Program (WFP) and United Nations Children Fund (UNICEF) also report poor funding levels for refugee operations in the region. UNHCR and partners are struggling to maintain minimum humanitarian standards for the refugees. In some camps in Niger and Burkina Faso refugees have to contend with daily water supplies below the emergency standard of 15 litres per person per day.<\/p>\n

The sacking of hotels, in addition to the widespread violence, has essentially destroyed Mali\u2019s tourism industry. \u201cThe entire local economy is gone. Everything has been torn down,\u201d stated Halle Ousmane Cisse, Timbuktu\u2019s mayor. \u201cThere\u2019s no more trade, no more banks. Administrative services are non-existent: Islamists have looted everything. Timbuktu is now a ghost town.\u201d<\/p>\n

After the armed Islamist factions hijacked the MNLA\u2019s struggle, the MNLA\u2019s political objective changed. On July 15, Ibrahim Ag Assaleh, a MNLA senior member, declared an end to his organization\u2019s separatist demands. \u201cWe are seeking cultural, political and economic independence but not secession,\u201d stated Assaleh, who instead advocated a system like Canada\u2019s Quebec province, which enjoys special autonomy rights. Another MNLA official stated that \u201cindependence has been our line since the start of the conflict but we are taking on board the view of the international community to resolve the crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n

Presently, the African Union is attempting to negotiate a peace settlement with Ansar Dine if the organization separates from AQIM. Meanwhile, in the event that a peaceful resolution fails to develop \u2014 a likely outcome given Ansar Dine\u2019s extremism \u2014 the African Union, through ECOWAS, is planning the creation of a UN-backed, 3,300-troop force to expel the Islamist militants from northern Mali and reunify the state. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warned that Paris would send forces into Mali to initiate an assault on AQIM, which considers France enemy number one. As of this writing, the coalition is seeking the UN Security Council\u2019s approval for military intervention.<\/p>\n

While denouncing the \u201cbribed\u201d governments of ECOWAS, Ansar Dine threatened reprisals against the Malian government and other states complicit in any coalition intent on forcefully expelling the armed Islamists. Ansar Dine threatened France with a statement promising \u201csuicide bombings, assassinations or abductions,\u201d even if non-French troops enter northern Mali, based upon the assumption that West African troops would be acting on behalf of French interests. Ultimately, if the African Union fails to negotiate a political solution with Ansar Dine, northern Mali\u2019s malnourished civilian population may have to endure a bloody war between a French-backed ECOWAS coalition and Ansar Dine, on top of the daily struggle to survive in the drought-stricken region.<\/p>\n

Lessons for the White House<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Sahel is one of the world\u2019s most unstable and dangerous regions. Portions of the land are controlled by armed Islamist extremists, drug smugglers, and kidnappers whose income depends on the ransoms of Western hostages. The lawlessness and extreme poverty within this strip of territory below the waterless Sahara threatens to create a new Afghanistan or Somalia in West Africa. The collapse of the Malian state has enabled Al Qaeda to gain a safe haven in more than 300,000 square miles of Malian territory with vast natural resources, airports and military bases. This scenario creates grave security concerns for the United States.<\/p>\n

Washington has been slow to learn the painful lessons of blowback. The Western military intervention against Gaddafi transformed Libya into the world\u2019s largest source of illicit weaponry following the regime\u2019s demise. Militant groups, including the MNLA, seized the opportunity to overpower Mali\u2019s army, thus empowering AQIM to become the dominant force alongside their Islamist Tuareg counterpart, Ansar Dine. Provided the confusion and power vacuum in Bamako, the Malian state has no capacity to expel AQIM without foreign intervention.<\/p>\n

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States has spent an annual $100 million on the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP), a part of the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM), to boost the Sahel governments\u2019 anti-terrorism efforts and weaken al-Qaeda\u2019s regional influence. Nonetheless, the AFRICOM mission in Mali backfired. The 87 Land Cruisers and satellite communications technology that the United States gave Mali\u2019s military fell into AQIM\u2019s hands after it gained control of northern Mali, according to David Blair. \u201cThe Islamists are the masters today,\u201d claims Blair\u2019s unidentified source inside the Malian army. \u201cThey have all the equipment that we left in the field.\u201d<\/p>\n

When Amadou Toumani Tour\u00e9 usurped power in 1991 in a military coup, he restored civilian rule the following year, earning the title, \u201csoldier of democracy.\u201d Before insecurity and violence erupted in 2012, Mali experienced two decades of democracy and was hailed as an African democratic success story. Today, however, Mali\u2019s future appears dark. No central government wields the power, or legitimacy, to protect Malians from the daily atrocities carried out by armed factions. Nor can it address the environmental, economic, and humanitarian crises that place millions of the brink of starvation and fuel the flames of radicalism. Any strategy that the Obama administration employs will carry high risks, and no easy solution is apparent.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, Washington should encourage dialogue among all the relevant regional actors even if the prospects for peaceful settlement are dim, and focus on addressing the root causes of instability in the region \u2013 environmental degradation, desertification, food insecurity, and large weapon flows. Besides al-Qaeda and its like-minded extremists, no one has an interest in seeing one of Africa\u2019s largest nations becoming another Afghanistan<\/p>\n


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